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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.